What percentage of British £1 coins in circulation are counterfeit? The latest official figure released by the British Royal Mint indicates about one in 40 coins or about 2.5 percent of all "round pounds" in use are fakes. This is an increase from the number of counterfeits detected in the past, but is the figure accurate?Not according to the British Broadcasting Corporation. In an April 8 BBC report the BBC relied on figures provided by a private British company called Willings for statistics. Willings manufactures counterfeit coin detection machines for businesses and other organizations that work with coinage.
The BRM inspects a random sample of circulating coinage twice a year. During the last quarter of 2008 the mint removed 270,000 bogus £1 coins from circulation. Only 97,000 coins of this denomination were removed from circulation during all of 2007.
These statistics may be troubling, but if the BBC and Willings statistics are reliable the mint has underestimated how many bad £1 coins are actually in circulation. Willings spokesman Andy Brown told the BBC the company study indicates one in 20 coins, or five percent of the £1 coins the company tests have proved to be fakes.
Brown did not elaborate on why the company's study should be considered to be more accurate than is the study done by the BRM. Brown did not present anything through the BBC report that indicated the Willings survey was a balanced national survey similar in scope to that done by the BRM, or if the Willings survey concentrates more in specific areas of coin intensive commercial activity than does the semi-annual mint survey.
Not to be overly critical of the BBC report and of Willings, but there was also no indication in the April 8 BBC report regarding if Willings counterfeit detection devices took normal differences in tolerance in genuine British £1 coins into consideration.
Brown did indicate coins checked by Willings were sent to the company from "car parking firms, vending machine operators, local councils, and even banks."
Brown said of the Willis findings, "We would estimate as many as five percent of coins we test are fakes. We've been collating them for the past four months or so, and already have a collection of several hundred."
Brown then added, "The figures quoted by the Royal Mint were wide of the mark."
The BBC report also quoted former Queen's Assay Master Robert Matthews as saying, "The mint is really trying to play down the problem and keep it as low key as possible. They've not produced any publicity material for banks etcetera to tell us how to differentiate between real and fake coins. They don't want to undermine public confidence in the coins; you might get people refusing to take them."
In fact, the BRM works with banks, the postal service, the vending machine industry, and law enforcement agencies to limit the number of bogus £1 coins in circulation.
Matthews continued, "There's a whole raft of organizations who should have been tackling this who haven't been tackling it. It's like a game of pass the parcel. In the final analysis it's the Treasury who should be dealing with this and checking the work of the cash centers."
Brown did make some valid points in the BBC article. If a coin is identified as a fake while in circulation the person who owned it last loses, since the coin is then confiscated. Brown said, "Provided the coins are just being accepted and passed through the system nobody cares. It's only when people start rejection the coins that people come to us."
Brown added, "We can manage a 50 to 60 percent detection rate while the machines being used by the Royal Mint can only pick up around 30 to 40 percent. That means even when fake coins do pass through security checks at accredited cash centers, two thirds will come right back into circulation."
You have to admit it sounded like a sales pitch when Brown continued, saying: "Their [British Royal Mint] percentage will go up as they get better at detecting fakes."
I guess the Willings firm must have more experience with assaying coins than does the 1,000 year old plus mint. I'm not saying the Willings company couldn't have something better to offer, but until somebody comes forward to prove their sampling is similar to the sampling made by the BRM how does anyone know for certain if the number of counterfeit coins in circulation is truly understated by the mint or if we are comparing two totally different sample markets.
Perhaps since the De La Rue printing company doesn't plan to make a bid for the BRM perhaps Willings would like to purchase the mint? A discredited mint should sell for a bargain price.
Source: numismaster.com
